Russia Rebuilds Tank and Artillery Stocks at Bases Near NATO Borders
Open-source intelligence indicates Russia is refilling equipment depots and expanding military infrastructure near the borders of Finland, Estonia and Norway. Russian exile political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov warns Europe may have only six to nine months before a decisive turn.
Russia is rebuilding its military equipment stocks at bases in the north-west and elsewhere in the country, some of them relatively close to NATO member borders. This is shown by open-source intelligence (OSINT) data, also highlighted by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Meanwhile, Vladimir Pastukhov, a 63-year-old political scientist living in Britain, a Kremlin critic and honorary professor at University College London, warns that Europe's security situation could change sharply within the next six to nine months.
Equipment stockpiles at bases
Satellite images show that depots largely emptied early in the war are filling up again with tanks, armoured vehicles and self-propelled artillery. Stocks are being replenished at no fewer than five storage bases.
In Karelia, about 185 kilometres from the Finnish border, newly built self-propelled artillery systems Malva and Giatsint-K are being accumulated. In Buy, in Russia's Kostroma region, roughly 500 kilometres from the Estonian and Latvian borders, the 22nd Central Reserve Base is receiving T-90M tanks, BTR-82A armoured personnel carriers and BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles. Some of the equipment has been repaired, while some is new from manufacturers. Stockpiling also takes place deeper inside Russia, for example in Topchikha in the Altai region.
Infrastructure expansion
A joint investigation by Scandinavian and Estonian journalists found extensive military construction in Karelia, the Murmansk region and south of St Petersburg. Near Petrozavodsk, about 160 kilometres from the Finnish border, housing is being built for several thousand soldiers of the 44th Army Corps. In Pechenga, about ten kilometres from Norway, new infrastructure is estimated to be able to house up to 17,000 troops. Facilities near Luga, around 120 kilometres from the Estonian border, are also being expanded.
Finnish Army commander Lieutenant General Pasi Valimaki has warned that up to 80,000 Russian troops could be stationed near the Finnish border in future, compared with about 20,000 previously.
Assessments and warnings
The source notes that the wide use of drones in Ukraine has let Russia redirect some heavy equipment to areas that could become a combat zone in a conflict with NATO. Russia's real intentions remain unknown, and stockpiling alone does not mean readiness for an invasion. ISW rates the risk of a direct Russian ground attack on Finland or the Baltic states as very low while most Russian resources are used in Ukraine.
Pastukhov argues that Europe wrongly hopes for a "Korean scenario", a freeze of the conflict along the current front line. He lists four European assumptions: Russia will avoid direct confrontation with NATO, Ukraine will keep withstanding attacks, Europe can fund Ukraine's defence (up to £127 billion a year), and US President Donald Trump will keep helping Ukraine. With so many assumptions, he says, "somewhere something will inevitably blow up".
