Latin America: Why are voters turning to the right?

Last weekend, right-wing extremist candidate Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly defeated leftist opponent Ivan Cepeda in Colombia's presidential election, campaigning heavily on security. In Chile, far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast took office in March, pursuing cuts to education and welfare while praising the country's former military dictatorship. Argentina has been led by right-wing populist Javier Milei since 2023, who also advocates austerity.

Currently, conservative or right-wing forces govern Bolivia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, and Peru. Meanwhile, leftist or far-left governments rule Brazil, Cuba, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Brazil will hold elections this fall, pitting incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against Flavio Bolsonaro, the far-right son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Political analysts point to three interconnected factors: extreme social inequality, high crime rates, and weak rule of law. In Colombia, de la Espriella promised to take on armed guerrillas and drug cartels. Sabine Kurtenbach of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies calls this "punitive populism" or the "Bukele model," after El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, who declared a state of emergency and jailed over 75,000 people without trial.

Jonas Wolff, a political scientist at Goethe University, sees voter dissatisfaction with leftist governments' inability to address economic stagnation and crime as driving the rightward swing. Kurtenbach adds that this is a backlash against the "pink tide" of the early 2000s.

Thomas Kestler of the University of Würzburg describes the shift as a pendulum swing that may reverse if promised successes fail to materialize. However, he notes the novelty of right-wing forces openly questioning fundamental human rights. US President Donald Trump has supported right-wing allies in the region, providing aid and applying pressure on leftist governments.