Latvia Lags on Renewable Energy Path: Buying Statistics Could Cost Up to €136 Million

Latvia's share of renewable energy has been below the set annual trajectory since 2022, but the Ministry of Climate and Energy (KEM) believes the country will most likely still reach its 2030 target of 61% renewable energy. This follows from the explanatory note to a draft regulation on flexibility mechanisms for renewable energy commitments, currently in coordination on the national legal acts portal. If the target were missed, Latvia might have to pay for other countries' renewable energy statistics.

What the draft regulation provides

The document prepared by the ministry sets out how Latvia may use various flexibility mechanisms. These include buying or selling renewable energy statistics, taking part in the European Union's renewable energy financing mechanism, and running joint projects with other EU member states or third countries.

Buying statistics would mean Latvia acquires another member state's surplus over its target and uses it to meet its own commitments. If Latvia exceeded its target, it could sell the surplus to other countries and pay the proceeds into the state budget.

Reason for the deviation

The ministry explains that the lag is largely due to the fact that fuel suppliers' obligation on the emission intensity of transport energy applies only from 2030. If suppliers meet the duties set in the Transport Energy Law, the ministry expects the target to be reached and no need to buy statistics from other states.

Possible costs

The explanatory note examines two scenarios:

• Comparing the effect of existing measures with all measures in the National Energy and Climate Plan gives a gap of about 2.56 million megawatt-hours, with purchase costs of €44.1–58.3 million.
• If the renewable share did not rise significantly by 2030, the gap between the 2024 volume and the 2030 target could reach 5.95 million MWh, at a cost of €103.5–136.3 million.

The ministry stresses that the scale cannot be forecast precisely, as there is no public information on the price of a statistical unit. A decision could be made after 2030, with funding from the state budget programme "Contingency funds". As of early 2026, Latvia had not made any transactions in renewable energy statistics or decided on joining the EU financing mechanism.