Latvian Defense Minister: Hybrid Attacks, Not Nuclear Rhetoric, Are the Main Concern
Latvia's Defense Minister Raivis Melnis said he does not see an imminent threat despite Russia's latest nuclear warning over Kaliningrad, pointing instead to rising hybrid activity as the real danger. Russia had warned NATO it was ready to use nuclear weapons if the alliance tried to isolate the exclave.
Latvian Defense Minister Raivis Melnis said in a Washington interview with RFE/RL on September 30 that he does not see an imminent threat following Russia's latest nuclear warning to NATO, echoing a similar assessment by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
Earlier in the week, Russia sent a diplomatic memo to NATO member states claiming the alliance was preparing an "air and naval blockade" of Kaliningrad, its heavily militarized exclave between NATO members Poland and Lithuania, and warned it was ready to use its full arsenal, including nuclear weapons, to prevent this. Rutte called on Moscow to stop the nuclear threats, stressing that NATO is a defensive alliance.
Melnis said Russia has repeatedly resorted to nuclear threats since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, using such rhetoric to frighten Western populations, weaken support for Kyiv, and test NATO's cohesion.
Experts urge caution
While several security specialists agree with Melnis that an immediate confrontation is unlikely, they stressed the warning should still be taken seriously, citing Kaliningrad's strategic position and Russia's 2024 revised nuclear doctrine, which lowered the threshold for potential nuclear use. Analysts noted this appeared to be the first time Russia issued a written diplomatic note explicitly warning of nuclear use over a potential Kaliningrad blockade.
Hybrid threats seen as more pressing
Melnis said the more immediate danger facing Latvia and its allies is not nuclear war or a large-scale conventional attack, but an expanding campaign of hybrid activity — cyberattacks, sabotage, and the weaponization of migration. He said he does not believe Russia currently has the capacity to launch a conventional offensive against a NATO country while sustaining its war in Ukraine.
Latvia is strengthening its defenses against drone incursions, deploying interceptor systems and additional radar along its borders with Russia and Belarus, drawing on lessons from Ukraine. Melnis said drone incidents like those recently affecting Lithuania, Poland, and Romania could become more frequent for Latvia as well.
During his Washington visit, Melnis discussed defense cooperation with the US, including engagement with the Michigan National Guard. He expressed confidence that the US will maintain its military presence in Europe, while stressing that European allies must take on a larger share of the defense burden. Latvia is legally committed to spending at least 5 percent of GDP on defense starting next year, in line with the target NATO members agreed to at their 2025 summit in The Hague.
