Latvia warns of Russian hybrid attacks on Baltics and Poland, but says full-scale war not imminent
Latvia's intelligence service has warned that Russia is preparing hybrid attacks against the Baltic states and Poland, but assesses that a full-scale war is not on the horizon.
Latvia's Constitution Protection Bureau has warned that Russia is planning military provocations against the Baltic states and Poland in an effort to pressure NATO into abandoning its support for Ukraine. Intelligence officials told Fox News on June 22 that they had seen signs of hybrid attacks, such as drones, missiles, or other actions designed to send a message: 'stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems.'
At the same time, according to Latvia's intelligence assessments, Russia is currently incapable of launching a conventional war. The biggest concern for the service is that 'Russian institutions are telling Putin what he wants to hear,' which could 'lead to foolish and senseless decisions.'
The bureau previously released a report stating that Russia intends to file a lawsuit against the Baltic states at the International Court of Justice, accusing them of discriminating against Russians and Russian-speaking populations. The bureau believes Moscow is using this legal campaign to construct a narrative it can later invoke to justify action against the Baltic states.
The report also noted that Putin signed a law in late May granting him authority to deploy armed forces to protect Russian citizens abroad. Russia's Federation Council had already granted him that authority immediately before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The intelligence service said Latvia does not currently face a threat of war and is not afraid of a full-scale invasion. 'Russia would need three to five years, even if the war in Ukraine ended today, to rebuild sufficient capabilities. What worries us now are provocations — drones, missiles and other hybrid attacks,' officials said.
Polish authorities have previously stated that Russia is already waging a hybrid war against NATO's eastern flank, carrying out killings, launching drones, conducting cyberattacks, targeting critical infrastructure, and weaponizing migration against NATO member states.
