Lithuania Wants to Normalize Ties with China: Does That Mean Divorcing Taiwan?

Lithuania's incoming government has expressed a strong desire to restore full diplomatic relations with China as quickly as possible. This move could lead to the renaming of the Taiwanese Representative Office that has been operating in Vilnius for five years to the Taipei Representative Office, aligning with the international norm where most countries maintain contact with Taiwan through offices bearing the name 'Taipei' rather than 'Taiwan'.

The office was opened with the name 'Taiwanese Representative Office' in 2021, which Beijing viewed as implicit recognition of the island's independence, triggering severe economic and political sanctions against Lithuania. Although the European Union expressed solidarity with Lithuania, no other EU member state followed its example in naming its office 'Taiwanese'.

Taiwan, a major semiconductor producer, had promised significant investment in Lithuania, including support for developing a domestic chip industry. However, major pledges have largely fallen through, most notably the collapse of the planned Teltonika chip factory project in 2024, causing disillusionment among Lithuanian politicians and the public. Lithuanian exports to Taiwan reached €60 million last year and continue to grow, but direct Taiwanese investment in Lithuania remains modest compared to its global footprint.

Experts argue that normalizing ties with China would not necessarily mean the end of Lithuania's relationship with Taiwan. 'Nowhere else in the world has an office with that name,' noted Valentinas Beržiūnas, a lecturer at Vilnius University. Arvydas Kumpis, head of the Asian Studies Centre at Vytautas Magnus University, added that what angered Beijing most was not the English or Lithuanian name but the Chinese-language version, which Lithuania's foreign ministry said in 2021 had not been agreed upon beforehand.

Analysts expect both sides to act pragmatically. Kumpis noted that Taiwan chose Germany over Lithuania as the base for its semiconductor expansion in Europe, highlighting Taipei's realistic approach. Beržiūnas suggested that had Taiwan's promised investments materialized, normalizing ties with China would have been a much harder choice; now, with little tangible economic benefit, disillusionment has grown.

Taiwan faces an unfavorable global trend, with the number of countries formally recognizing its independence shrinking each year. In 2024, Pacific island nation Nauru switched allegiance to Beijing. Experts agree that if relations with China are genuinely normalized, Lithuania is unlikely to return to the values-based foreign policy championed by the previous conservative government.