Tusk warns: Next months may be critical for Baltic security

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk indicated that the next few months could be decisive for the security of the Baltic states, as fears grow over possible Russian provocations against NATO. He stressed that Poland is prepared for various scenarios but warned that the threats are real, especially in the Baltics.

As the war in Ukraine enters a new phase, US officials have warned of increasing risks of escalation. Former CIA Director William Burns noted that Russian leader Vladimir Putin faces mounting pressure at home and on the battlefield, which could prompt more aggressive actions. Polish intelligence sources warned in late June of a possible Russian armed provocation against Poland, including attacks on power infrastructure or hybrid operations near the border.

Potential flashpoints include Kaliningrad and Belarus. Russian forces from the Kaliningrad region could quickly move into NATO territory. Meanwhile, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, reacting to Ukrainian warnings, appears to have backed down regarding the deployment of Russian troops.

NATO officials state that the best defense for the Baltics is robust air and ground surveillance. At the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8, alliance leaders are discussing the war in Ukraine and NATO's defense capabilities. Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs emphasized that the summit must demonstrate unity in support of Ukraine and the strengthening of NATO's Article 5.