Lula wins Brazil's presidential runoff, overturning first-round defeat

Brazil's incumbent leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, defeated far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, in the presidential runoff held on Sunday, 26 October. It is the first time in Brazil's democratic history that a candidate who came second in the first round has overturned that result in the runoff. The outcome keeps Lula in office rather than returning the Bolsonaro family to power; Jair Bolsonaro is currently under house arrest for attempting a coup.

From dismay to a comeback

After the first round three weeks ago, Lula reportedly told allies he could not understand how his government, which he considered the best of his three terms, had finished second. Brazil's left was downcast, and analysts widely expected a Flávio Bolsonaro win because about 9 million votes cast for other, right-wing candidates were expected to move mostly to him.

The shift began the night after the first round, when students from the Fluminense Federal University took to the streets of Niterói to protest against a Bolsonaro returning to power. Two days later a similar protest took over downtown Rio de Janeiro, and demonstrations spread nationwide. In his victory speech Lula thanked young people for defending democracy.

Social media and government resources

Political scientist Fábio Vasconcellos of the Federal University of Paraná attributes the win to a combination of the streets, social media and the machinery of government. In recent weeks Lula approved a benefits package, including larger and earlier payments under the main cash-transfer programme for poor families, which was at the limits of what electoral law allows.

Lula ally André Janones, a congressman, created a WhatsApp channel called "Lula's Army", which reached more than 10 million followers by election day. Lula's digital reach overtook Bolsonaro's, and Lula called Janones "our general". Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, also began recording selfie videos despite not owning a mobile phone.

Vote gains and what comes next

Flávio Bolsonaro won 56.1m votes in the first round and 3.7 million more in the runoff. Lula rose from 53.9m to 64.2m, drawing in voters who had abstained as well as supporters of other candidates. Political scientist Camila Rocha points to voters' fear of losing rights and of power being concentrated in Bolsonaro's hands. Lula has said this was his last election, so the left now faces the question of succession; Rocha says no one in his party has comparable leadership.