Mari-Liis Jakobson: Estonia is searching for a Schrödinger's president

Estonia's presidential election is a paradoxical process, writes University of Tartu political scientist Mari-Liis Jakobson. Although the number of electors is small—far fewer than in Riigikogu or local council elections—the choice of person interests almost everyone. The president's formal powers are limited and the role is largely symbolic, yet expectations remain sky-high.

Following the Midsummer holidays, political discussion has turned to who will become Estonia's next president. Current President Alar Karis announced he will not run for a second term.

Jakobson compares the search for a president to Schrödinger's cat, a quantum thought experiment where a cat in a box is considered both alive and dead until the box is opened. Similarly, the future president is imagined as fulfilling all contradictory roles at once until a specific candidate is elected.

Three key areas

Jakobson highlights three areas where the president's role will matter most in the coming years.

A small state. Estonia is a small state. The president should not compete with the prime minister or foreign minister in foreign policy but complement them—maintain relationships with countries and individuals who may not receive the government's daily attention, explain Estonia's security interests outside traditional diplomatic formats, and keep attention on Ukraine, NATO unity and a rules-based international order.

High constitutional ideals. Estonia is a small state that has set itself high constitutional ideals, and its credibility depends on upholding them. The president is one of the guarantors of this constitutional order. He must ensure that laws passed by Riigikogu are constitutional and sufficiently clear, and that fundamental rights, democratic values, and other constitutionally enshrined principles are not harmed. This is especially important when security becomes the justification for more and more decisions.

A turbulent external environment. Estonia operates in a highly turbulent external environment. The president can encourage parliamentary politics to look beyond the election cycle and serve as an anchor of continuity and stability during changes of government. Trust in the government and Riigikogu has declined noticeably in recent years. The president should use the office's authority to support the credibility of the entire constitutional system, especially in an era of information manipulation where attacks can destabilize elections and spread distrust.

Jakobson concludes that Estonia does not need a Schrödinger's president who can be everything at once, but a complement and a counterbalance—someone who helps keep the constitutional order steady precisely when the world around is no longer steady.