Analysis: Russia's 2026 Duma election shows most fraud markers of Putin era

As of the evening of September 23, Russia's Central Election Commission had not yet released full results, with returns from the Leningrad region and occupied territories still missing. Still, data from roughly 82,000 precincts — about 85% of the total — allowed Meduza to compare this vote with the 2021 Duma election.

Core versus 'comet tail'

In 2021, most precincts clustered around 35-40% turnout with United Russia scoring roughly 30%, while a separate group of precincts formed a "comet tail" where turnout and the ruling party's vote share rose together, with suspicious concentrations at round numbers. In 2026, that tail thickened into several distinct clusters, while the "normal" core shrank but shifted slightly higher, suggesting United Russia's genuine support may have grown to around 35%.

Regional divergence

The analysis also revealed a new pattern in Moscow, where a vertical cluster of low-turnout precincts emerged, largely explained by 78% of the capital's voters casting ballots remotely. St. Petersburg moved in the opposite direction, with both turnout and support for United Russia roughly doubling over five years. Chechnya's results, by contrast, have barely changed since 2021.

Using a statistical method developed by researchers Dmitry Kobak, Sergey Shpilkin, and Maxim Pshenichnikov, Meduza calculated that the number of precincts showing suspiciously round turnout and vote-share figures has nearly doubled since the last Duma election, climbing from about 1,300 to nearly 2,250. That, together with other anomalies, makes the 2026 vote the least fair Duma election of the Putin era, according to the analysis.