Mihkelson: Constant speculation about a Russian attack is weakening, not strengthening, deterrence
In an opinion piece for ERR News, Marko Mihkelson argues that growing speculation about an imminent Russian attack on Europe actually undermines Western deterrence, and calls for a clear focus on helping Ukraine win the war.
In a commentary published by ERR News, Marko Mihkelson argues that speculation about a possible Russian attack on Europe has been building rapidly, blending genuine facts with wishful thinking and worst-case scenarios. He contends this trend is not a strategy but a dangerous distraction, since European allies still largely treat the war in Ukraine as a regional territorial dispute rather than part of Russia's broader ambitions.
Russia's goals remain unchanged
Mihkelson stresses that Moscow's strategic objectives have not shifted: to destroy Ukraine's sovereignty and reshape Europe's security order by weakening and eventually breaking up NATO. He points to Russia's December 2021 ultimatum, which demanded NATO withdraw its military infrastructure back to 1997 lines, as evidence that the Kremlin's ambitions were never limited to Ukraine alone.
He warns that the persistent focus on the Baltic states and Poland as likely targets creates a false sense that the rest of Europe could remain unaffected. According to Mihkelson, Russia can erode NATO without a conventional military strike at all — through election interference, divisive narratives and exploiting political rifts, including in France, Germany and Poland.
Three steps for the West
To counter this, Mihkelson calls on the so-called Coalition of the Willing to pursue three measures: substantially boost military aid to Ukraine, at least 0.25% of GDP annually, alongside financial support; prepare a military humanitarian mission to shield Ukrainian cities and infrastructure from aerial attacks; and tighten economic pressure on Russia. Failing that, he warns, Europe should expect more acts of Russian terror, including attacks on defence firms and possible false-flag operations aimed at pinning blame for casualties in a NATO country on Ukraine.
The piece concludes that defeatist rhetoric does not reinforce deterrence but undermines it, and that the West's task is not to guess where Russia will strike next but to ensure its aggression ultimately fails.
