NATO weighs redeploying anti-drone defenses to the Black Sea

NATO officials are weighing whether to move existing anti-drone countermeasures to the Black Sea region, diplomats told Politico. The deliberations follow requests from Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey, prompted by a recent spate of probable Russian attacks on ships that is disrupting Ukrainian grain shipments.

The three countries are also working together on an initiative to safeguard freedom of navigation in the Black Sea. Bulgarian prime minister Radev plans to present it to the European Union this week.

Black Sea restrictions and warfare

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, naval forces from NATO countries have avoided military exercises in the Black Sea. This accords with the 1936 Montreux Convention, which gives Turkey the authority to restrict ship passage through the straits leading into the sea. Turkey's enforcement has also kept Russia from reinforcing or rotating its Black Sea fleet during the war.

Ukraine has no large conventional navy, yet it has largely neutralized Russia's warships and disrupted Russian-linked shipping and ports using aerial and sea drones. Russia has responded with drone attacks on Ukrainian ports and vessels, and at times has also targeted ships from other countries in the region.

According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Ukrainian ships have typically followed sea lanes through Romanian, Bulgarian or Turkish territorial waters since autumn 2023. This route is especially important for Ukraine's agricultural exports, accounting for well over 90 percent of its grain exports.

Hybrid warfare incidents

The latest attacks are disrupting the delivery of Ukraine's newest harvest to the rest of Europe, and some cargo is being rerouted overland or along the River Danube, Politico reported. Such attacks in waters near NATO countries are unprecedented, and they coincide with a growing wave of incidents attributed to Russian hybrid or gray-zone warfare tactics. Examples include an attempted explosive drone attack on a Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig Airport in Germany, and a Russian drone boat loaded with explosives found floating near a Romanian offshore gas platform in the Black Sea.

Carnegie notes that Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria have kept upgrading their navies and deepening maritime security cooperation since the war began. The rising dangers for Black Sea shipping will likely speed up that trend, including for the NATO alliance as a whole.