NATO School Lecturer: Fedorov's Resignation Could Become a 'Black Swan' for the Authorities

Public Reaction and Potential Consequences

Following the resignation of Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, a wave of public outrage has swept the country. Citizens, organized in building chats and stairwell groups, have taken to central squares. NATO School lecturer, veteran, and researcher Iryna Serheeva, in her publication, argues that Fedorov's dismissal could become a 'black swan'—an unexpected event that reshapes the political landscape.

Fedorov, who previously served as Minister of Digital Transformation and created the 'Diia' platform, is portrayed as a tech-savvy, corruption-free official. His team at the Ministry of Defense introduced new contracts with fixed terms, rotations, and incentive payments, aiming to change the treatment of soldiers from expendable resources to valuable assets.

Conflict with the Commander-in-Chief

Serheeva sharply criticizes Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, who publicly mocked Fedorov's use of the word 'vision.' In his post, Syrskyi claimed credit for the defense of Kyiv, disregarding the contributions of civilians and volunteers. Serheeva emphasizes that Syrskyi's behavior—blocking ministry initiatives and issuing an ultimatum—raises questions about his suitability for the position. President Zelenskyy chose to keep Syrskyi and dismiss Fedorov.

Civilian Control and Future Challenges

The lecturer notes that Ukrainian law requires democratic civilian control over the military. She warns against the trend of appointing security service officials to civilian posts, which leads to a 'Chekist state.' Ukraine's victory requires an asymmetric strategy based on technology and preserving human life.

Serheeva predicts that Fedorov has a chance at the presidency if he learns to communicate in a language understandable to older generations. The public response proves that Ukraine remains politically alive and cannot accept any decision without resistance.