NATO StratCom head: over a tenth of Latvia's population may hold pro-Kremlin views

Social media platforms are seeing an intensified spread of narratives favorable to Russia, according to Jānis Sārts, head of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence. He says these efforts to energize and normalize pro-Kremlin messaging have resumed, even though such activity had faded in the first years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as people understood it could lead to trouble.

Latvia's Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) says that only a portion of social media content aligned with Russian interests comes from genuine user accounts — most originates from so-called bots, coordinated or automated accounts. According to the bureau, Russia uses this tactic to create a false impression of widespread public support for its policies in Latvia, describing it as part of the hybrid activities Russia systematically conducts against Latvia and other EU and NATO member states.

Surveys fail to capture the true share of pro-Russian residents, sometimes referred to as "zhduny" (those waiting for Russia), because people avoid answering questions about using Russian as their primary language or about responsibility for the war in Ukraine. Sārts cautiously estimates that, of Latvia's total population, likely more than 10% hold pro-Kremlin sympathies.

He notes that Saeima election results only partially reflect this share, since voter choices are shaped by many factors. He also distinguishes between two categories of Russia sympathizers: those who simply agree with Russian narratives, and those willing to actively act on them. Far fewer fall into the second group, and Sārts says Russia's repeated attempts to broaden this active base have largely failed to gain real traction.

Latvia's State Security Service (VDD) reports that since Russia's invasion of Ukraine it has opened 70 criminal proceedings related to public glorification or justification of Russian war crimes and/or incitement of hatred against Latvians or Ukrainians. The service regularly holds preventive conversations with residents who express support for Russia or spread pro-Kremlin messages online or elsewhere in public, warning them of potential criminal liability — around two thousand people have gone through such conversations so far. The VDD notes that in several cases, individuals detained for spying on Russia's behalf became involved in intelligence-gathering precisely because of their pro-Kremlin orientation.

Comparing Latvia's security services to those of other European countries, Sārts ranks their performance as average — neither among the best nor at the bottom.