NATO states on alert: Russia may be probing Norway's Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic
Western intelligence services warn that Russia could use Norway's Svalbard archipelago to test NATO's readiness to respond. Norway is reinforcing its military presence and protecting critical infrastructure in the region.
Concern is growing among NATO allies that Moscow may turn its attention to Svalbard and other Norwegian-owned Arctic territories to test the alliance's readiness to act, according to the outlet "Lrytas", citing "Politico".
Allies note that Russia has been surveying important undersea cables in the region's waters. Local authorities on Svalbard are investing in critical infrastructure and have prepared an evacuation plan. Norway is also strengthening its naval capabilities, acquiring frigates and submarines, and plans to purchase three new satellites to improve situational monitoring.
NATO has not yet announced plans to increase naval or air presence around Svalbard, though some experts believe current measures may not be sufficient to deter Moscow.
Possible scenarios
Norway's Defence Minister Tore Sandvik has warned that Russia could attempt to provoke a conflict or create hybrid threats in the Arctic, and views Russia's heightened interest in Svalbard as one possible sign of such intent. Since last year, a branch of the Russian Geographical Society, led by former Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, has operated on the islands, and this year Russian vessels reportedly tested an underwater device near Svalbard that could be used to damage cables.
Stale Ulriksen, a lecturer at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, believes Russia could seize Svalbard relatively easily, for instance by sending special forces to take over the airport. Kari Mikkelsen, a history professor and Svalbard expert at the Arctic University of Norway, suggests another scenario: Russia could declare a state of emergency under the pretext of protecting local residents and send in crisis-management forces, an action that would not automatically trigger NATO's Article 5 collective defence mechanism.
Svalbard holds special international status — treaties prohibit establishing military bases there. The nearest Russian military base is located roughly 1,000 kilometres away on the Kola Peninsula, home to about two-thirds of Russia's nuclear submarines, which could reach the Atlantic Ocean and pose a threat to NATO and the United States.
