NATO unity to face test at Ankara summit as Trump looms

NATO is gearing up for a summit in Ankara on July 7, taking place at a time when the alliance's unity is under strain from US President Donald Trump's critical stance toward European allies and his demands for higher defense spending.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte spent late June preparing for a visit to Washington, where he used flattering rhetoric and displayed large boards with the headline "The Trump Trillion" to show that European allies and Canada have added $1.2 trillion in defense spending since 2017. This tactic is part of Rutte's efforts to keep Trump within the NATO fold.

The summit will address several key issues, including support for Ukraine. According to AFP, NATO's European members and Canada are expected to pledge 70 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine this year and next. However, tensions persist within the alliance over burden-sharing, with Rutte repeatedly calling for a more even distribution of aid.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced in mid-June a review of US troop deployments and military posture in Europe, warning that allies who do not step up will be closely watched. The harsh tone caused irritation among NATO defense ministers, though the review was expected.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned against creating dangerous capability gaps during the transition. Experts stress that Europe must develop its own plan for managing this transition, as the US may reduce its role.

The central theme of the summit will be political unity. According to security expert Claudia Major, if the summit shows political divisions or open disputes, it will weaken both political cohesion and military deterrence. Optimism comes from the recent G7 summit, where Trump struck a more cooperative tone, joining other leaders in backing additional sanctions on Russia.

NATO leaders hope the declaration will reaffirm Article 5 and label Russia as a long-term threat. However, deterrence only works if the promise is believable, and unity is the real test facing NATO in Ankara.