Nausėda: Russia Not Ready for Major Attack on NATO, but Provocations Will Go On

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has said that Russia is not currently ready for large-scale operations against NATO, but that Russian leader Vladimir Putin's provocations will go on. NATO is the North Atlantic military alliance. Nausėda made the remarks in an interview with the German outlet WELT, published on 6 November 2026 and shared by POLITICO, as both belong to the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network.

Testing the alliance

Nausėda noted that Russia's resources are tied up on the Ukrainian battlefield, where it is not succeeding. At the same time, he said Putin is testing NATO and moving ever closer to Article 5, the alliance's collective defence commitment.

According to the president, Moscow wants to see how the alliance responds to hybrid attacks. These are suspected to have included drone incursions, cyberattacks and arson, among other things. The hybrid war will continue not only on NATO's eastern flank but also in Germany, Denmark and other countries. Russia is testing how determined the allies are and whether they will respond collectively once certain red lines are crossed.

Talks over Ukraine

Nausėda, an economist who has led Lithuania since 2019, sees no serious willingness in Moscow to enter negotiations to end the war before next spring. In his view, Russia will use the winter months to keep up pressure on Ukraine through air strikes on cities.

"The Russians will only pretend to negotiate. I don't trust them," he said. Putin will make demands that are unacceptable to Ukraine from the outset.

Nausėda is convinced Ukraine will get through the winter. In that case, he said, the chances of serious talks will improve in 2027, but he does not expect them any earlier.