Latvian Armed Forces commander: no direct military threat, but risk of Russian provocations remains

National Armed Forces (NBS) commander Kaspars Pudāns told the LETA news agency that Latvia does not currently face a direct military threat, since no increased presence of aggressor-state armed forces has been observed near the country's borders. He noted the current situation differs from late 2021, when Russian troops remained near Ukraine's border after military exercises before launching a full-scale invasion — at present there are no conditions suggesting a similar scenario could repeat in the Baltic region.

At the same time, the armed forces are prepared for possible hybrid provocations from Russia, and cannot rule out renewed incursions by foreign drones into Latvian airspace given the ongoing fighting in Ukraine. Pudāns said NBS is taking specific measures to reduce these hybrid-threat risks.

Border support and airspace monitoring

NBS is already providing reinforced support to the State Border Guard to deter organizers of illegal migration and to detect and detain illegal border crossers. Pudāns emphasized that the increased military presence in eastern Latvia will allow faster response to other possible provocations by aggressor states, and that this support to the Border Guard will not be reduced during the "Namejs 2026" comprehensive state defense exercise.

Together with NATO allies, NBS continuously monitors Latvian airspace to respond to and neutralize threats when necessary. Mobile air defense units have been on permanent duty near the Latvian border since autumn 2024, and some have now been equipped with interceptor drones.

International context

According to earlier reports, CIA Director John Ratcliffe warned Russian officials during a visit to Moscow against escalating conflict with NATO, particularly with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Meanwhile, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs has said the assessed level of military threat has not changed and that the risk of a direct Russian invasion currently remains low, though risks of sabotage, cyberattacks and hybrid operations persist.