Novaya Gazeta Europe: United Russia would have won only 34% without ballot stuffing

Novaya Gazeta Europe has calculated that, absent ballot stuffing, United Russia would have secured roughly 34% of the vote in Russia's recent State Duma elections. That figure is significantly lower than the party's officially declared result of almost 58% — about 1.7 times the estimated fraud-free outcome.

How the method works

The analysis relies on a method developed by physicist Sergey Shpilkin, which is based on the idea that artificially adding votes for one candidate simultaneously boosts both that candidate's vote share and overall turnout. When plotted on a graph, polling stations with ordinary, unmanipulated results cluster together relatively evenly, while stations suspected of ballot stuffing form a distinct "comet tail" stretching toward higher turnout and a larger share for the leading party.

According to Novaya Gazeta Europe, this year's cluster of fraud-free polling stations is centered around 34% support for United Russia, which the outlet says is likely close to what the real result would have been without manipulation. Two independent election analysts reportedly agreed with the outlet's calculations.

About the method's creator

Shpilkin began analyzing Russian election data in 2007, applying an approach originally developed by American diplomat John Brady Kiesling. Despite acknowledged limitations, the method has been widely used by political scientists and journalists to assess suspected election fraud in Russia. In 2022, Shpilkin's home was searched by authorities, although he was already living outside Russia at the time.