Patriot missile license for Ukraine is a long-term investment that will take years

US President Donald Trump announced on July 9 at the NATO summit in Ankara that he will approve a license for Ukraine to produce its own Patriot missile interceptors. While this is a significant promise, experts caution that concrete results could be years away.

Ukraine has been facing a critical shortage of Patriot interceptors, hampering its ability to defend cities from Russian ballistic missile attacks. On July 6, Kyiv was hit by 23 ballistic missiles, none of which were intercepted; at least 22 people were killed. Russia has increased its use of ballistic missiles precisely because it knows Ukraine lacks interceptors, said Huseyn Aliyev, an expert at the University of Glasgow.

Patriot systems are in high demand globally. European countries are urgently replenishing their own stocks after donating systems to Ukraine, while South Korea, Japan, and Middle Eastern nations face their own threats. The licensing process could take six months to a year due to strict export controls, according to Timur Kadyshev, senior researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg. Only after this administrative phase can Lockheed Martin, the main manufacturer, grant the license to Ukraine.

There is also the question of which interceptor model to produce: the older PAC-2 or the more modern PAC-3. The PAC-3 is designed to intercept ballistic missiles with a 30-50% success rate, while the PAC-2's effectiveness against such threats falls below 10%. Ukraine likely hopes to produce PAC-3 interceptors, but currently only Japan, besides the US, can produce the system on its territory.

Even if the license is granted for PAC-3 production, building a factory and manufacturing the first interceptors will take years. For comparison, Germany approved Patriot production in 2022, with first missiles expected in 2027 – and Germany is not at war. Ukraine faces additional challenges: the factory will be a Russian target, requiring dispersed production, and supply chains for components, especially the seeker, are already strained.

Experts agree it will be several years before Ukraine can produce its own interceptors. For now, this is a long-term investment that could serve as a deterrent against future Russian attacks. In the meantime, Ukraine must continue defending itself with existing resources and intensify strikes on Russian missile factories and launch sites.