After US midterms, Gulf states hope Iran war will end

Following the US congressional midterm elections, in which President Donald Trump's party suffered a heavy defeat, Trump told Fox News that the war with Iran had partly played a role in the outcome. He said American voters were unwilling to accept the war's impact on gasoline prices. Newly elected Democrats take their seats early next year, and analysts note that a Democrat-controlled Congress could in theory withhold funding for military operations.

Risk of escalation

Observers say the United States and Israel held off on major attacks on Iran until both countries had voted. At the end of October, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was already warning Gulf governments to prepare for a short, intense campaign after the midterms. Two US political science professors wrote in Foreign Affairs that presidents who lose control of Congress and cannot run again often step up foreign interventions. Trump, meanwhile, has told several outlets he is in no rush to resume bombing.

Iran says it is ready for any attack, and rhetoric from its leaders suggests it may target a wider range of sites, potentially including regional energy and economic infrastructure, undersea telecom cables or data centers. Some experts believe Iran was deliberately holding back to pressure Trump before the vote and may now be more open to negotiating a peace deal.

A difficult position for the Gulf

Gulf states have been the main targets of Iranian attacks since the conflict began. Anwar Gargash, a foreign policy adviser to the United Arab Emirates leadership, told a security conference in Bahrain that the states were drawn into a crisis they had worked hard diplomatically to avert and are seeking a political off-ramp. Qatar is trying to mediate between Washington and Tehran while running emergency drills at its airport; the Emiratis are doing similar drills. Saudi Arabia faces a two-front threat, as it is also under attack from Yemen's Houthi militia. Egypt is reportedly strengthening air defenses around the Suez Canal.

The war is pushing Gulf states to reassess defense ties with the US, since American bases have made them targets. The UAE is moving closer to Israel, and Saudi Arabia has joined a defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey. Former US ambassador Ryan Crocker doubts meaningful Gulf unity is near, while Ross Harrison of the Middle East Institute says that in the long run Gulf states will likely have to reach an understanding with Tehran.