Peeter Kaldre: Europe Takes the Lead at NATO Summit in Ankara

The NATO summit in Ankara could go down in history as the meeting where Europe decided to take over the leading role from the United States in the alliance, writes Peeter Kaldre in his summary of the summit. The US will gradually reduce its conventional forces in Europe while maintaining nuclear deterrence. This new phase has been dubbed NATO 3.0, following NATO 1.0 (Cold War) and NATO 2.0 (Afghanistan). However, the reduction of conventional forces is not yet final, as an audit remains pending.

Europe appears ready to take on capabilities previously reliant on the US. For example, there is a plan to order ten surveillance aircraft from Swedish company Saab for €4.5 billion. Another project involves several countries and Airbus to produce heavy transport aircraft. Germany, France, and the UK intend to invest €50 billion in long-range missile production. This project may have prompted the US to unexpectedly promise Germany Tomahawk missiles, as American defense industries seek to retain lucrative contracts.

Fortunately, fears that Donald Trump would angrily leave NATO did not materialize. The first day of the summit was gloomy: Trump criticized Europeans for not aiding in the war against Iran, threatened Spain with trade disruption, and raised the Greenland purchase issue. On the second day, his attitude shifted, calling European partners friends. This change may have been influenced by events in Iran: Tehran attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei turned into an anti-American demonstration. Iranian leaders, once considered 'reasonable guys' by Trump, are now 'scum'.

The Ankara declaration reaffirms unwavering commitment to Article 5 and states that Russia poses a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security. Notably, the latest US national security strategy does not mention the Russian threat, a fact celebrated by Russian propagandists.

Ukraine was a key topic. Trump met with Zelensky and promised a license for Ukraine to produce Patriot air defense missiles. However, these missiles are needed now, not in 3-4 years when production could start, and likely not in Ukraine. Trump can now ask Ukraine what more they want. The war will end when one side runs out of resources; Ukraine is effectively targeting Russia's oil industry but needs money and weapons. The summit decided to provide Ukraine an additional €70 billion this year and the same next year, plus €90 billion previously allocated by the EU. Russia often claims it is fighting the collective West, and Kaldre notes that indeed Russia threatens the entire West.