Recycling could become key source of materials for China's EV manufacturing, study finds
A study led by Xin Xiong at Nanjing University suggests recycled vehicles could supply most of several critical materials for China's EV production in coming decades. The researchers modeled supply and demand between 2010 and 2050.
Recycling is often seen as a logical answer to finite natural resources, yet it frequently struggles to compete with virgin materials on cost. Fast-evolving technologies such as electric vehicles add another complication: by the time a car reaches the scrapyard, manufacturers may have already shifted to a different battery chemistry, lowering the value of returning the battery to the production chain. Nonetheless, new research led by Xin Xiong at Nanjing University indicates that in China, recycling could become the dominant source of many key materials needed to produce EV components over the next decades.
The researchers modeled how recycled material supply might compare with manufacturing demand in China from 2010 to 2050. The analysis covers battery-related materials for hybrid vehicles, battery-electric cars, and even fuel-cell vehicles, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, phosphorus, sodium, sulfur, and graphite. It also includes several elements important for electric motors: copper, neodymium, dysprosium, samarium, and cerium.
Four technological progression scenarios were considered. Some assume that battery and motor chemistry will gradually shift toward technologies like solid-state lithium, sodium batteries, or motors with lower rare-earth content; others envisage a faster transition. The model calculates the "circularity potential" of each element over time — meaning how much of the manufacturing demand in a given year could be met by recycled material flowing in the same year. Recent Chinese policies are also factored in. These aim to raise recycling rates for some battery elements from the current 40 percent to at least 98 percent, and to increase the share of EVs in new vehicle sales from 45 percent to 60 percent by 2030.
Although hybrids and plug-in hybrids gradually disappear in the model, sales of battery-electric vehicles continue rising all the way to 2050. As a result, the number of vehicles reaching recyclers lags, but it also increases steadily. The model assumes battery replacement will be common because batteries can lose capacity long before a vehicle reaches end of life, particularly in commercial operations with heavy use. Combined with China's battery-swapping stations, this means additional batteries are manufactured and eventually recycled.
