Researchers warn 2026/27 El Niño could threaten global food supplies
Two university professors warn that the El Niño event developing in 2026/27 could be among the strongest in more than a century, threatening both food security and public health. They urge governments to prepare now.
Prof Eoin McLaughlin of Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh, Scotland, and Prof Matthias Beck of University College Cork (UCC) in Ireland have warned that an El Niño event now developing could have far-reaching effects on global food security. In their view, the 2026/27 El Niño could be among the strongest in more than a century.
El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon linked to unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. It can disrupt weather patterns worldwide and contribute to droughts, flooding and extreme temperatures in different regions.
Food shortages and disease risk
In a recently published article, the researchers say food shortages and disease outbreaks are interconnected threats that should be tackled together rather than as separate emergencies. Beck said major natural disasters can sharply affect both food supplies and human health, and that the response should move beyond handling individual disasters to recognising how climate shocks can trigger wider humanitarian emergencies.
The authors add that the same climatic disturbance can have very different outcomes depending on the economic and institutional conditions in which it occurs.
Existing pressure on food systems
The article notes that El Niño is arriving while global food systems are already under strain. The wars in Ukraine and Iran have disrupted agricultural production and trade, and fertilisers are in short supply. Many countries could withstand a major El Niño in isolation, the authors say, but the combined effect of several shocks could overwhelm that resilience.
The researchers also point to less obvious health risks. Food shortages and shifts in relative prices can change what people eat and where they get their food, potentially increasing contact with animals that carry zoonotic diseases, meaning illnesses that can pass from animals to humans. The consequences are hard to predict, but planning can avert the worst outcomes.
Beck said governments and international organisations must prepare for these interconnected risks before they escalate.
