Poland prepares bigger 2027 pension increase — indexation forecast nears 4%

Poland's government is preparing its 2027 budget, which sets aside about 19 billion zlotys for the annual indexation of pensions and other social benefits (known in Polish as waloryzacja). New analyst estimates suggest the rate applied next March could end up higher than the government assumed earlier in the year.

How the forecasts changed

The first estimates for the 2027 pension indexation appeared on 9 June 2026, when the Council of Ministers adopted a proposal from the Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy to keep the statutory minimum share — 20% of real wage growth — in the formula. That implied an increase of at least 3.48%. On 28 July, the government confirmed the 20% share would stay unchanged, despite trade unions pushing for it to rise to 50%. On 28 August, the 2027 draft budget was adopted with roughly 19 billion zlotys allocated to indexation, though no new official indicator was published.

Since then, the full-year inflation forecast has risen from 2.5% to 3%, driven partly by the situation in the Middle East, which has pushed up fuel prices. A government fuel-discount programme (CPN), which cost about 5 billion zlotys, will not be extended — meaning pensioners will only be "compensated" for higher prices in 2027.

How much pensions could rise

Sources cite differing scenarios. Under a more conservative one (inflation around 3%, real wage growth of 3.3%), indexation would be 3.66%, raising the minimum pension from 1,978.49 to about 2,050.90 zlotys gross, and a 4,000-zloty pension to 4,146.40 zlotys. An expert from AGH University, Dr. Łukasz Wacławik, estimates a higher figure of 3.96%, which would lift the minimum pension to about 2,056.84 zlotys (as reported by Fakt) or 2,056.81 zlotys (as reported by Gazeta Prawna) — the two sources differ slightly on the exact amount. An average pension of about 4,000 zlotys would rise by roughly 158 zlotys gross under this scenario. The final indicator will only be known after official statistics are published — Fakt points to February 2027, while Gazeta Prawna cites February 2026.

Extra payments and other changes

Besides the March indexation, pensioners will also receive the "13th" and "14th" pensions, for which the budget allocates a combined 32.1 billion zlotys, according to Interia. The 13th pension equals the minimum pension amount and is paid regardless of income. The full 14th pension goes to those whose base pension does not exceed 2,900 zlotys gross — a threshold unchanged since 2021, meaning fewer people qualify for the full amount each year. Gazeta Prawna also notes that with 3.96% indexation, some pensioners previously exempt from income tax (the exemption threshold is 2,500 zlotys gross) will start paying it. Separately, from 1 January 2027, the share of the so-called widow's pension will rise from 15% to 25%, subject to conditions related to age and marital status.