Poland plans 2027 pension increase, but rising inflation may upset the government's forecast
Poland's government has approved a draft 2027 budget that includes pension indexation, but economists warn that rising inflation could push the actual increase higher than initially projected.
Budget approved, indexation still uncertain
Poland's Council of Ministers approved the draft 2027 state budget on Tuesday, projecting state revenues of just under 700 billion zloty and spending reaching nearly 978 billion zloty, according to Money.pl. The draft keeps the statutory minimum formula for pension indexation, which includes 20 percent of the real growth in average wages.
Based on current forecasts, Super Express (cited by Money.pl) estimates the 2027 indexation rate could reach at least 103.48 percent, meaning pensions would rise by 3.48 percent. Under this scenario, the minimum pension would increase to around 2047 zloty after indexation — about 69 zloty more than now. The final figure will only be confirmed in March 2027, so current numbers remain estimates.
The budget forecasts also include average pension figures: 4,468 zloty gross in 2026, rising to 4,707 zloty gross in 2027, and 4,963 zloty gross the following year. Longer-term projections point to an average pension of up to 5,219 zloty gross.
Inflation rising faster than planned
However, the outlet Fakt notes that some assumptions built into the budget may already be outdated. Poland's Central Statistical Office (GUS) released a preliminary reading on September 30 showing prices rose 4 percent in September, driven largely by fuel costs after a government program that had kept diesel and petrol prices lower expired at the start of September. Diesel now costs an average of 9.14 zloty per liter, and Pb95 petrol 8 zloty.
Economist Marek Zuber told Fakt that the budget assumed 3 percent inflation for 2027, a figure that now looks overly optimistic. He outlined two scenarios: if tensions in the Middle East ease and oil prices fall to around $70 per barrel, price growth could slow, though secondary cost effects — such as higher transport costs pushing up bread prices — would persist. If the situation does not calm down, inflation could approach 5 percent by year-end.
According to Fakt's estimates, the government's original forecast assumed 3.98 percent indexation, but if inflation exceeds 4 percent, indexation could rise to as much as 4.16 percent — a figure that differs from the 3.48 percent cited by Money.pl. At a 4.16 percent rate, the minimum pension (currently 1,978.49 zloty gross) would rise to 2,060.82 zloty gross, with the net amount increasing from 1,800.43 to 1,875.35 zloty — a net gain of 74.92 zloty.
Reserve funds available
The budget has earmarked around 19 billion zloty for pension increases. If the indexation rate turns out higher than planned, an extra roughly 850 million zloty would be needed — but this would not pose a problem, since a special reserve holds an additional 3.2 billion zloty. The final indexation rate will be known once full-year inflation and wage data are available — Fakt cites February 2027, while Money.pl points to March. The increase itself will take effect on March 1, 2027.
