Polish Farmers Face Price Scissors Similar to 2023 in 2026, Institute Forecasts
Poland's agricultural economics institute IERiGŻ-PIB forecasts that fuel and fertiliser will become more expensive in 2026 while farm purchase prices fall. The price scissors index may come close to its 2023 level.
Poland's Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics (IERiGŻ-PIB) estimates that the ratio of farm product prices to production input prices could deteriorate sharply again in 2026. The forecast assumes higher fuel and fertiliser prices alongside lower purchase prices for farm output. As a result, the so-called price scissors index, which describes this ratio, may approach the level recorded in 2023.
Fuel and fertiliser get pricier
According to the source, the war in the Persian Gulf region and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are affecting agricultural production costs. In 2026, the rise in energy carriers, mainly motor fuels, could be particularly noticeable. IERiGŻ-PIB estimates that energy carriers on the Polish market could cost up to 15% more over the whole of 2026 than a year earlier.
Mineral fertilisers will also become more expensive, with prices rising by 7–8% on average. The situation looks especially difficult for nitrogen fertilisers, whose prices will probably climb by more than 15%.
Costs rise, purchase prices fall
Not all inputs will get more expensive at the same pace; price dynamics for the other categories are expected to be considerably lower. Even so, the average increase in farm input prices in 2026 may reach about 5–6% year on year.
Higher costs are not the only problem for farms. A drop in purchase prices of basic agricultural products is forecast at the same time, with averages possibly as much as 8–10% below 2025. That means double pressure on profitability: farmers will pay more for fuel and fertiliser while receiving less for what they sell.
Comparison with 2023
Arkadiusz Zalewski of IERiGŻ-PIB assesses that the price scissors index in 2026 will settle at a level unfavourable to agriculture and will probably be close to the 2023 figure of 84.8 points. If the forecasts prove right, farmers could again see production profitability worsen. Farms where fuel and fertiliser make up a significant share of operating costs will feel it most.
