Analyst: real peace in Ukraine still far off
Political commentator Artem Dudchenko says talk of a possible energy truce between Russia and Ukraine does not signal an approaching end to the war, though such a truce could actually benefit Kyiv more.
Washington appears to be preparing to resume talks on ending the war in Ukraine. In early September, US negotiators visited Moscow and Kyiv with a reportedly new plan, and President Donald Trump recently announced a possible energy truce. Political commentator Artem Dudchenko discussed the topic on Radio 4.
The format under discussion would involve both sides refraining from strikes on each other's energy and fuel-sector facilities. However, it remains unclear which side would benefit more from such an arrangement.
A limited truce is not yet peace
Dudchenko stresses that even if limited truces are possible, it is too early to view them as a step toward long-term peace. He says he is skeptical of the energy truce idea in principle, but notes that Trump's comments about high global diesel prices show that Ukraine's campaign of strikes on Russian oil refineries has been fairly effective. Restrictions on Russian diesel exports and difficulties supplying the domestic market, he says, indicate that refinery attacks are pressuring the Russian economy.
That is why Moscow could theoretically be interested in an agreement protecting refining infrastructure from further strikes. At the same time, the commentator believes Ukraine stands to gain the most from a truce — if Russia continues massed strikes on the energy system ahead of winter, civilians would bear the consequences, whereas restrictions on strikes against Russian refineries would mainly create economic inconvenience for Moscow.
Dudchenko adds that some argue such a truce would simply give Russia time to rebuild facilities and resume exports, but he believes the toll on civilians and the potential for internal tension in Ukraine outweigh that risk, since Ukraine has stabilized the front line but has limited ability to repel strikes deep in the rear.
Washington seeking a diplomatic result
In early September, Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv. Following those visits, both sides began speaking of "new ideas," though full-scale meetings are unlikely to resume before October. The Kremlin has said talks involving the US, Russia and Ukraine could take place in October. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he is ready to meet Vladimir Putin in December at the G20 summit in Miami if the Russian leader attends.
Dudchenko believes Washington is seeking at least a limited diplomatic result on Ukraine ahead of the US midterm congressional elections, but he is skeptical about the prospects for talks — in his assessment, the Kremlin has no interest in a quick end to the war, while Ukraine is not in a position that would force it to accept Russian terms.
