Political Scientist: Vseviov's Nomination Pushed Reinsalu to the Background
Estonian political scientist Tõnis Lehtp says Social Democrat Jonatan Vseviov's candidacy has changed the balance among candidates for prime minister. In the latest poll, Isamaa leader Urmas Reinsalu has dropped to third place.
Estonian political scientist Tõnis Lehtp discussed in an interview with ERR the results of the latest poll on whom residents would like to see as prime minister. The survey was carried out by the research company Norstat together with the non-profit Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut. In Lehtp's view, the nomination of Social Democratic Party candidate Jonatan Vseviov has reshuffled the balance among candidates from different parties and pushed Urmas Reinsalu, chairman of the Isamaa party, into the background.
Poll results
According to the poll, 28% of respondents would like to see Centre Party chairman Mihhail Kõlvart as prime minister, 21% would choose Social Democrat Vseviov, and 19% Reinsalu. Only 8% prefer the current prime minister and Reform Party chairman Kristen Michal.
Lehtp believes Reinsalu's fall is directly linked to Vseviov's appearance. Comparing the November and October polls, support for Reinsalu among Isamaa's own voters fell by 13 percentage points. According to the political scientist, Vseviov also took potential supporters from the Reform Party and the Right-wingers. Social Democratic leader Lauri Läänemets had support of roughly 10–11%, and Lehtp thinks he would not have been as popular. Vseviov's arrival also lifted the Social Democrats' overall rating.
Centre Party and Isamaa
According to Lehtp, the Centre Party and Kõlvart have not suffered from the new rival. His popularity is rising in step with the party's support, including among Estonian-speaking voters. In several polls the Centre Party has already overtaken Isamaa. Lehtp also points to voters shared with EKRE, and to Isamaa's heterogeneous electorate, which he says is hard to hold together after the latest Riigikogu elections.
The Reform Party's position
The political scientist links Michal's low rating to low trust in the Reform Party and the government. In his view, the Social Democrats will try to position themselves as the main alternative to Kõlvart, leaving Reinsalu and Michal outside the spotlight.
