Raivo Vare: Russia may announce mobilization in autumn
Estonian military and economic experts predict that Russia, facing heavy losses at the front and a growing budget deficit, could announce a general mobilization as early as this autumn.
According to the Estonian Ministry of Defense, the front in Ukraine has practically stalled, and Russia loses more soldiers daily than it can replace. The number of combat clashes on the front has decreased from 250 to 230 over the past week, with the Donetsk region being the main theater.
Gert Kaju, head of the defense readiness department at the Estonian Ministry of Defense, stated that Russia has made some advances, but they are slow and extremely costly, especially in terms of human resources. He emphasized that the front line is shifting slowly, but the pace is significantly slower than a few years ago.
Meanwhile, economic expert Raivo Vare believes that both the situation at the front and the economic conditions could force the Kremlin to announce mobilization in the autumn. He pointed to the growing budget deficit: although Russia's oil and gas revenues increased substantially earlier this year due to events in Iran, war spending rose from 32% to 46% of the budget, doubling the deficit.
Vare added that this will affect military production, civilian sectors, and the social sphere, influencing public sentiment inside the country. He predicts that Russia may introduce general mobilization to avoid an increase in social tension.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russian forces captured about 16 square kilometers of territory this week, while suffering approximately 1,300 killed or wounded per day.
