West says Russia losing 6,000 more troops than it can recruit each month in Ukraine

Western officials say Russia is now losing about 6,000 more troops in Ukraine each month than it is able to recruit. Although Russia continues to recruit new soldiers at a rapid pace — an estimated 1,000 per day — this has not been enough over the past two months to replace those killed or wounded on the battlefield.

Officials say Vladimir Putin's response has been to escalate attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and population. Since early July, Russia has fired more than 360 missiles at Ukraine, exploiting Kyiv's shortage of defences against ballistic missiles. Western assessments suggest Moscow's aim is to break Ukrainian morale by destroying the country's energy infrastructure ahead of winter.

Putin has limited options for making up the heavy losses, officials say, since a fresh general mobilisation would carry significant political and economic risk. The last such mobilisation, in autumn 2022, prompted around a million Russians — many highly skilled — to leave the country, with fewer than half returning. It also remains unclear whether Russia's military could absorb several hundred thousand new recruits given shortages of equipment and officers.

Ukraine's appeals and Russian threats

Ukraine has continued striking Russian oil facilities, causing fuel shortages, while repeatedly appealing to allies for more offensive missiles and air defence systems. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham visited Kyiv this week on his first overseas trip in office, telling Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Britain would share previously classified information on British-made components used in long-range cruise missiles. Burnham has also urged the international community to provide more protection, including additional US-made Patriot interceptors, and is expected to repeat this call at next month's UN General Assembly in New York.

In response, Russia has issued repeated threats of retaliation, including suggestions of possible attacks on UK military targets both in Ukraine and elsewhere. Western officials maintain that Putin still wants to avoid direct confrontation with Nato, describing the rhetoric as consistent with longstanding Russian military doctrine aimed at exploiting fears and influencing decision-making. Officials note Russia retains the ability to carry out cyberattacks or physical attacks via proxies — last year six men were jailed over a Russian-ordered attack on a warehouse in east London that stored aid for Ukraine.