Heaviest battles of the year expected for Donbas this autumn, testing Ukraine's new military leadership
Russian forces are slowly advancing on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and analysts warn that autumn could bring the fiercest fighting of the year on this front. Defending Donetsk region will be the first major test for Ukraine's newly reshuffled military command.
Russian troops are gradually closing in on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the main cities of Ukraine's so-called fortress belt, with military analysts estimating occupying units are now less than 15 kilometers from both cities, Reuters reports. The two cities are facing increasingly intense drone and guided bomb attacks.
Analysts expect the situation to worsen as autumn weather sets in, since deteriorating conditions reduce drone effectiveness and could allow Russia to restore mobility for mechanized assaults. Carnegie Endowment analyst Michael Kofman said September and October could become the toughest fighting period of the year. However, Ukraine has already shown it can repel such attempts, having disrupted a Russian offensive near Dobropillia over the summer.
New command structure
Defending Donetsk region will be the first major test for Ukraine's new military leadership under General Mykhailo Drapatyi, who replaced Oleksandr Syrskyi as commander-in-chief in July and has been giving more authority to operational-level commanders. Key posts in the Donetsk direction are now held by experienced commanders Andriy Biletsky, who leads the 3rd Army Corps, and Denys Prokopenko, who heads the National Guard's Azov Corps, along with Colonel Emil Ishkulov, responsible for defending Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Slow but continuing advance
Capturing the remaining Ukrainian-held part of Donetsk region is currently one of Russia's central war aims, with Moscow demanding Kyiv hand over the unoccupied territory — a demand Ukraine has rejected. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the fate of Donetsk region remains a central issue of the war.
Despite pressure, Russian forces have not achieved a rapid breakthrough, and analysts, including the Institute for the Study of War, consider it unlikely Russia will fully capture the region by year's end, the deadline previously set by Vladimir Putin. Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to face personnel shortages and mobilization difficulties.
