Ryanair chief expects no jet fuel shortage in Europe through summer 2027
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary says Europe should have enough jet fuel this winter and next summer. Prices remain very high, however, keeping costs elevated for airlines.
Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary said on Thursday that he does not foresee jet fuel shortages in Europe this winter or through summer 2027, despite the Iran war disrupting supply chains. He spoke in Brussels at a press conference organised by Airlines for Europe (A4E), adding that only an unforeseen event could change the picture.
Several factors support supply. As Euronews Business reported earlier, lower seasonal demand from November and higher imports from Asia are expected to keep the continent supplied. Data from Kpler indicate nearly 900,000 tonnes of Asian jet fuel were scheduled to arrive over that period. On 8 September, the European Commission said higher output at EU refineries and alternative imports were meeting demand, though further Middle East disruption could tighten supplies.
Prices stay elevated
Secure supply does not mean cheaper fuel. Kpler analyst George Shaw said on 23 September that jet fuel would likely face higher prices because it is closely tied to the diesel market, where record prices were recently seen.
According to the International Air Transport Association, Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States had the highest average jet fuel price of any region, at $195.95 a barrel in the week ending 2 October, more than double a year earlier. Although prices slipped 1% that week, the global premium over crude remained about three times its year-earlier level.
O’Leary noted that jet fuel has historically cost 10–15% more than Brent crude, while it now runs about 50% higher. He expects the gap to last another 12 to 18 months, citing attacks on Russian and Middle Eastern refineries and limits on tanker availability and refining capacity.
Last Friday the G7 agreed to speed up the release of 100 million barrels from strategic reserves. The International Energy Agency clarified that these barrels belong to the emergency release agreed in March, and said members back prioritising diesel; no specific jet fuel release was announced.
Last month Ryanair said it would trim its winter schedule to limit exposure to fuel costs, lowering its full-year passenger target from 216 million to 214 million.
