SAB: Large-Scale Russian Attack on Baltics Unlikely in Short Term, but Hybrid Threats Possible

The Constitution Protection Bureau of Latvia (SAB) has released its assessment of the current threat level from Russia to the Baltic states. The security service states that while Russia may conduct hybrid attacks and provocations in the short term, a large-scale conventional attack on Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia is highly improbable at this time.

According to SAB, Russia's hybrid activities aim to increase psychological pressure on NATO member states, their officials, and societies. Moscow seeks to exploit fears of escalation to reduce Western support for Ukraine or to force concessions in a potential diplomatic settlement. Russia has already intensified psychological and information campaigns against Western nations, but SAB considers the effectiveness of these provocations to be very low and unlikely to change NATO's policies.

However, the bureau warns about the nature of Russia's decision-making process. Due to its closed and autocratic system, officials receive selective and uncritical information, raising the risk of miscalculation, including actions against NATO. SAB notes that Moscow's increased pressure is largely driven by its inability to achieve military successes in Ukraine and growing domestic political and economic pressure on Vladimir Putin's regime.

The main reason a conventional attack on the Baltics is unrealistic is Russia's military resources being tied up in Ukraine. The majority of Russia's capabilities are focused on the war against Ukraine, leaving it without the capacity for large-scale operations against NATO countries.