Security service: Russia poses no direct military threat to Latvia now, but long-term risks persist

Latvia's Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) has assessed that Russia currently does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia, though several indicators suggest possible long-term intentions. The agency notes that Vladimir Putin's regime continues to operate with a distorted perception of threats, fueled by growing isolation among the Kremlin elite and a lack of internal critical input. At the same time, Russia's rhetoric toward Western countries, including Latvia, is becoming increasingly hostile.

Of particular concern to SAB is that Russia's perception of Latvia is starting to resemble how it viewed Ukraine before launching its full-scale invasion. The agency warns this trend could, over time, lead to more aggressive Russian actions and heightened security risks for all of Europe. As examples of intensified propaganda, SAB cited unfounded claims made in May about Latvian involvement in Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia, as well as misleading reports about state language proficiency checks. The agency suggests these stepped-up information campaigns may also be linked to Russia's internal economic troubles and an effort to reduce Western support for Ukraine.

Military situation at the border

A similar assessment was previously given by National Armed Forces commander Kaspars Pudans, who said no reinforced hostile troop presence has been observed near Latvia's border that would mirror the 2021-2022 pattern, when Russian forces massed near Ukraine under the guise of exercises before invading. Nonetheless, the armed forces are preparing for possible hybrid provocations and cannot rule out further unauthorized drone incursions into Latvian airspace linked to the war in Ukraine. Additional resources are also being directed to the State Border Guard to combat illegal migration.

Foreign intelligence services have also weighed in — reports indicate the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency, during a visit to Moscow, warned Russian officials against escalating conflict with NATO, particularly regarding the Baltic states. President Edgars Rinkevics has stated that the threat assessment remains unchanged and the risk of direct invasion is currently low, although the possibility of sabotage and cyberattacks remains constant.