Weather Forecast: Umbrella Likely Unnecessary on Midsummer Eve Evening
According to meteorologist Ele Pedassaar, Estonia will experience mostly dry and moderately warm weather on Midsummer Eve evening, with temperatures around 15–16°C. Long-range forecasts indicate normal rainfall in July, but a drier August, while the frequency of extreme weather events increases due to climate change.
Meteorologist Ele Pedassaar predicts that on the evening before Midsummer (Jaanipäev), Estonia will stay mostly dry and moderately warm. By 9 PM, temperatures will be around 15–16°C, and the night will not drop below 10°C. On June 23, daytime temperatures will exceed 20°C. Although some rain is possible in western and southern areas after noon, it is expected to clear by late evening, with no significant precipitation. Thus, an umbrella will likely not be needed.
In the days leading up to the holiday, sharper contrasts are expected with a brief temperature rise towards the weekend, followed by regional rains. Sunday is likely to be the warmest day, but afternoon and evening may bring showers and thunderstorms. After Midsummer, new cyclones will approach the Baltic Sea, making precise precipitation timing uncertain. As of Thursday morning, the rain front expected for June 24 is delayed, possibly arriving only in the evening or the following night.
Long-term climate models show normal July rainfall of about 67 mm in Estonia, with no extreme events expected. August, however, is forecast to be significantly drier than usual. Last summer saw nearly 300 mm of rain—1.5 times the norm—causing soil damage and crop flooding. Due to global warming, summer temperatures are consistently rising, and heat warnings have become routine. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and energy, leading to local destructive extremes. Last summer, mini-tornadoes in Viljandi and Tartu counties caused significant damage. Large hail events are also becoming more frequent; for example, on August 11, hail stones measuring 4 to 6 cm fell along Estonia's southern border. During the Song Festival, storm winds blew away tents. Meteorologists note that such anomalies have become so prominent that professional communities select the weather event of the year.
