Finnish Expert: Large-Scale Conflict in the Baltic Sea Unlikely in the Near Term

Jukka Savolainen, an expert at Finland's European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, gave the newspaper Iltalehti his assessment of security in the Baltic Sea region. He argues that the world now lives in an era of heightened risk, with various hybrid warfare methods being tested globally. The assessment matters because several undersea infrastructure incidents have been recorded in the region since late 2023.

Unknown object in the Gulf of Finland

An unknown object was recently found in the Gulf of Finland and temporarily halted shipping. Savolainen believes it has most likely been on the seabed for decades. He estimates that a similar disruption would probably not have occurred a decade ago, and that the situation would have been resolved with far fewer resources.

The expert sees no signs that passenger ferries running between Finland, Sweden and Estonia face higher risk. In his view, strict security measures like those at airports are unnecessary: they would be "shooting oneself in the foot" and sharply raise costs.

Better than in 2021

Savolainen says that in autumn 2026 the Baltic Sea security situation is better than in 2021, when Russia presented the United States and European countries with written demands to recognise its security interests. Had the invasion of Ukraine succeeded within days in February 2022, as Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly planned, Russia would in his view have begun making demands in the Baltic Sea region too.

He credits Russia's limited success in Ukraine and NATO's enlargement with Finland and Sweden for improving the situation. This came despite acts of sabotage: since late 2023, cables and pipes have been damaged, including the Balticconnector gas pipeline, for which the Chinese-flagged container ship Newnew Polar Bear is suspected. Damage has also been found between Sweden and Gotland, and between Estonia and Finland.

Possible incidents

Civilian shipping is currently practically not under threat, but the expert does not rule out strange and serious incidents, including a deliberately staged small-scale military conflict meant to show NATO's inability to act. At the same time, he considers a large-scale Russian attack in Europe very unlikely, because Russia would lose such a conflict and knows it.