Spain vs Argentina World Cup final: predictions, schedule, and side stories
The 2026 World Cup final between Spain and Argentina kicks off Sunday in New Jersey; Spain is favored by Opta, while Messi’s possible last dance, wildfire smoke, and a historic referee add intrigue.
Spain and Argentina will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup final on Sunday, July 19, at 19:00 GMT at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. This is only the second World Cup encounter between the two sides; their first was in the 1966 group stage, where Argentina won 2-1. Since 2000, Spain has dominated the fixture with three wins in four matches.
Predictions
The Opta supercomputer favors Spain to win. In 25,000 simulations, Spain became champions 59.6% of the time, while Argentina defended their title 40.4%. After 90 minutes, Spain won in 45% of simulations, a draw (leading to extra time) occurred in 29%, and Argentina won in normal time in 26%.
Other storylines
- Messi’s last World Cup? Fans are following Lionel Messi’s preparations, as this may be his final tournament. Meanwhile, Spanish teenager Lamine Yamal is seen as the next global superstar; a viral picture of a baby Yamal with Messi has circulated.
- Wildfire smoke Canadian wildfire smoke has blanketed the northeastern US, triggering health alerts. A cold front is expected to clear the haze before kickoff. Over 80,000 spectators are expected at the stadium, with another 50,000 watching from Central Park. Air quality in New Jersey was rated “unhealthy for sensitive groups.”
- Referee Slovenian Slavko Vincic will become the first Slovenian to officiate a men’s World Cup final. He previously refereed the 2024 Champions League final. His appointment comes amid controversy over refereeing decisions favoring Argentina, including a missed red card for Messi. Vincic said he was emotional when learning of his selection.
- Messi’s letter The Argentina captain posted an emotional Instagram message thanking teammates and fans, emphasizing that the journey mattered more than titles.
- Fan takeover Times Square in New York has been transformed into a sea of blue and white as Argentine fans flood the city.
- Cape Verde connection Cape Verde is the only team that neither finalist beat in regulation time. The island nation drew with Spain and forced Argentina to extra time before losing 3-2.
- Netanyahu support Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared support for Argentina, receiving a team jersey from the Argentine ambassador.
