Supergirl box office disaster signals broader superhero movie woes

The new DC Studios film 'Supergirl,' starring Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El, earned just $38 million in North America and roughly $68 million worldwide in its opening weekend. This is a disastrous result for a movie reported to cost around $170 million before marketing. The failure has sparked concerns about the future of James Gunn's DC Universe (DCU), which is only two films in.

Observers note that 'Supergirl' points to a larger problem beyond one studio. The Marvel Cinematic Universe trained audiences to care about minor characters because they were stepping stones to something bigger, like Avengers team-ups or the next exciting plot thread. But when a film like 'Supergirl' fails to gain traction, the difficulty becomes evident. Similar struggles have been seen with Marvel's 'Eternals,' Sony's 'Madame Web,' and DC's 'The Flash.'

Superhero cinematic universes are built on expansion, with each addition contributing to the sense of a vast fictional Lego set. When one piece doesn't fit, it's hard to motivate fans for the next installment. For 'Supergirl,' the question is whether the character will appear in the upcoming 'Man of Tomorrow' to prove she cares about more than Krypto and drinking. That could work if Gunn's planned sequel to last year's 'Superman' is a hit.

The poor performance makes it more likely that DC will pivot to better-known heroes. Andy Muschietti, director of the 'It' films, is set to helm 'Batman: The Brave and the Bold' within the main continuity. Pressure will also increase on projects like the upcoming superhero-horror hybrid 'Clayface,' though it has a smaller budget and no requirement to tie into the larger universe. The future of DC might be limited to Superman and Batman movies with occasional cheaper 'Elseworlds' spin-offs while the studio waits for confidence to rebuild.

Marvel could face an even bigger headache. Sony has already damaged characters like Kraven the Hunter, Morbius, and Madame Web from entering Spider-Man's MCU world. If audiences tune out all but the biggest superhero names, how will that affect the climactic team-up films that have earned billions? Will anyone care about Shang-Chi fighting Doctor Doom in 'Secret Wars' if his last solo film was six years ago? Former Disney CEO Bob Iger has hinted that the constant stream of Disney+ spin-offs will be reined in. The declining quality of superhero movies could ultimately doom the entire genre.