Swiss to vote on population cap of 10 million
Swiss voters will decide on June 14 on a far-right initiative to limit permanent residents to 10 million after 2050, with economists warning of severe economic consequences.
Switzerland will hold a referendum on June 14 on the "No to 10 million" initiative, proposed by the far-right Swiss People's Party (SVP). The initiative aims to cap the country's permanent population at 10 million after 2050. A similar proposal failed 12 years ago.
Economists highlight the complexity of the issue. Tobias Heidland from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) told DW that limiting immigration would spark a struggle over what kind of immigration to allow. He expects widespread dissatisfaction in the business community, as many highly qualified professionals would choose not to migrate to Switzerland.
Sabine Zinn from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin argues that the question cannot be answered with a simple yes or no. She emphasizes the need to distinguish between humanitarian refugee migration and economic labor migration. Many European countries, including Germany and Switzerland, face demographic challenges with fewer workers supporting social security systems. A blanket cap would exacerbate these problems.
Wido Geis-Thöne from the German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne notes that shortages may affect unskilled labor too. Many EU nationals work in hotels, restaurants, and construction, which are vital for Switzerland as a tourist destination. A 10 million cap would almost certainly cause significant harm.
Bloomberg reports that if the initiative passes, economic output could drop by up to 12% by century's end, especially in healthcare, hospitality, IT, and construction.
Geis-Thöne does not see Germany following suit because as an EU member, it cannot restrict free movement without leaving the EU. Heidland sees a risk, noting Germany is already looking at more restrictive neighbors like Denmark. Zinn fears the referendum could send a signal to other countries, especially those with right-wing governments.
Geis-Thöne adds that Germany could benefit if the initiative passes, as skilled German workers would stay in Germany. But for Switzerland, it could be disastrous, especially if it leads to a rift with the EU, its largest export market.
