IMF: Kazakhstan's Growth to Accelerate to 4.9% in 2027

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Kazakhstan's economy, a major oil exporter in Central Asia, to grow 4.9% in 2027, according to its World Economic Outlook published in October. Growth this year is projected at 4.4%, down from 6.5% in 2025. Even so, Kazakhstan is forecast to post the strongest growth this year among oil exporters in the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia group.

Regional forecasts

The wider region's economy is projected to shrink 0.3% in 2026 before expanding 6.3% in 2027. Middle Eastern oil exporters have been hit hardest by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March. The IMF expects Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar to see double-digit contractions this year, followed by double-digit growth in 2027 as production and exports normalise.

Commodity prices, remittances and reforms should keep supporting growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Uzbekistan is forecast to grow 7.8% this year and 6.5% next year, Kyrgyzstan 9% and 7%, Tajikistan 7.3% and 6.8%, and Turkmenistan 2.4% and 2.5%.

Oil market disruption

The Hormuz closure, linked to the US-Iran conflict, disrupted around 20% of the world's oil supply, roughly 20 million barrels a day. Producers outside the Persian Gulf, including Brazil, Kazakhstan, the United States and Venezuela, raised output. Some Gulf producers rerouted supplies, while the International Energy Agency and China released emergency reserves. The IMF's baseline assumes the strait reopens in March 2027, with a broader return to pre-war conditions by October.

Russia's war in Ukraine has also disrupted supply: Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have affected Kazakh crude shipped via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.

AI investment and the global outlook

Investment in artificial intelligence has supported economic activity. Rising demand for semiconductors and other hardware could benefit commodity exporters such as Kazakhstan, though the IMF cautions that the sustainability of the boom is uncertain.

Global growth is forecast to slow from 3.5% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, then recover to 3.4% in 2027. US growth is projected at 2.3% in both years, the eurozone at 1.1% and 1.2%, and China at 4.5% and 4%. Global headline inflation is expected to rise to 4.7% this year before returning to 4.1% in 2027.