Taagepera: Iran yawns at US military threats
Political scientist Rein Taagepera argues that Iran is unimpressed by US military threats because Washington's weapons stockpiles have been dangerously depleted by aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, China watches the situation with interest.
According to Rein Taagepera, emeritus professor of political science at the University of Tartu's Schütte Institute, Iran is yawning in response to US military threats because it knows that US weapons stockpiles have become dangerously empty. He said that China is watching this situation with satisfaction.
Speaking on Vikerraadio's program "Välistund," Taagepera noted that China has played its cards well by not playing at all, observing from the sidelines as others spoil their own positions. The US president may warn of new attacks on Iran, but Iran, China, and everyone else know that the US has already used a third of its best weaponry in Ukraine. If the US were to repeat this with Iran, it would be completely vulnerable to China. Therefore, China watches with interest while Iran yawns.
Taagepera noted that China is currently at the peak of its capabilities, but a decline will inevitably begin. China knows this, and if it wants to take any action, now is the last time.
The attack on Iran has caused a split among Republicans, who have always had a strong isolationist wing. If things go as badly as they might, they will try to justify their party.
Regarding US-Europe relations, the expert said he does not perceive any animosity between them. Pressuring Europe to take a greater role in its own defense is justified. Until now, Europe only yawned when the US spoke reasonably, so a push was necessary. Now it depends on how much time is given, as changes cannot be made quickly.
Taagepera stated that there was a real possibility that the US would at some point occupy Greenland, but that would mean severing ties with all European allies. It would show that trust in America is zero. However, given the actions of the current US president, nothing can be ruled out 100%.
On US-Russia relations, Taagepera said there have been no signs of rapprochement after the summit in Alaska.
