Tallinn's population declines as net migration turns negative

Tallinn's population is shrinking. At the beginning of the year, the capital had just under 460,000 residents, about 500 fewer than a year earlier. By May, the figure had dropped to just over 457,000, a decrease of roughly 2,400 in five months. Last year, the population fell by about 1,300, after growing by around 600 in 2023. The sharp increases in 2022 and 2023 were driven by Ukrainian refugees: in April 2022 alone, the population grew by about 2,000.

Natural population change has been negative in Tallinn since 2020, with deaths outnumbering births each year. Last year, the natural decrease was 776 people, smaller than in the previous two years. Though fewer than 10,000 children were born nationwide in 2024 (a threshold only crossed once before), births in Tallinn actually rose to 3,409 from 3,262 the year before. However, in the first five months of 2025, births were 60 lower than in the same period of 2024. Births in Tallinn had been declining since 2017 until last year's increase; in 2016, 5,126 children were born, dropping to 3,262 in 2024 – a nearly 40% decline in nine years.

Net migration turned negative in the past two years. In 2025, net migration was -3,171, consisting of -2,177 domestic and -994 international migration. In 2024, net migration was -198, though international migration was positive (+808). Domestic migration has been negative since 2018, with over 12,000 more people moving from Tallinn to other parts of Estonia than the reverse. Between 2015 and 2025, total net migration to Tallinn exceeded 40,000, while the city's population grew by about 38,000 – largely due to the 2022 influx of 20,000 Ukrainian refugees.

A population forecast by the University of Tartu, released at the end of 2025, projects Tallinn's population will grow by 6,200 by 2035 and by 22,300 by 2050, reaching nearly 480,000. The baseline scenario assumes net migration stays at the average of the past decade (excluding COVID-19 and the Ukraine war), births initially decline then rise slightly, and life expectancy continues to increase – from 73.7 years for men and 83.3 for women in 2025 to 80 and 87 respectively by 2050. However, the share of residents aged 19 and under is expected to fall by four percentage points by 2050, while those aged 60 and over will increase by six percentage points.