Tõnis Saarts: Herem could either save or finish off the Reform Party

Estonian political scientist Tõnis Saarts argues that recent events surrounding national defence and the Ministry of Defence represent for the Reform Party not merely another governance crisis but a far more fundamental challenge. According to him, defence had been the party's last genuinely convincing trump card, since trust in its economic policy had already eroded long ago.

Saarts recalls that ahead of the 2023 election, the Reform Party successfully convinced voters of its competence in three areas — economic policy, safeguarding the welfare state, and the ability to counter the threat from Russia. Today, he writes, the party's image of economic competence has been seriously devalued amid years of stagnation, tax hikes and public finance troubles, while welfare policy was never ideologically central to the party's brand. Of the three areas, defence competence had therefore held up best.

The scandal that broke at the end of former Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur's term, Saarts writes, seriously cracked this last pillar. By appointing the widely respected expert Martin Herem as minister, the party made a savvy public-relations move — but the step also carries risk, since a fairly independent-minded minister could uncover new revelations that would deal further damage to the party's authority.

Saarts lays out three possible scenarios. In the first, Herem uncovers years of chaos in management and procurement, showing that the party has in fact failed to properly run its core policy area. In the second, the Reform Party would attempt to strike back at Herem by pointing to his own responsibility as former commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, damaging both the government and the credibility of the entire defence system. In the third, most favourable scenario for the party, Herem restores order and the Reform Party reaps the political benefit, allowing it to campaign on having admitted mistakes and fixed them.

According to Saarts, over the coming six months Herem's performance will determine not only the quality of Estonia's defence management but also whether the Reform Party retains even one policy area where voters still see it as the most competent choice.