Trump's proposed energy truce unlikely to halt rising fuel prices

US President Donald Trump announced on Monday evening that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to halt strikes on each other's energy infrastructure. He argued this would help bring down global oil product prices, including diesel, and claimed that rising diesel costs were driven mainly by the Russia-Ukraine war rather than the situation around Iran.

Industry experts disagree with that assessment. Allan Vaht, a board member of Treminal Oil, noted that Russia's diesel exports have fallen by half a million barrels per day, while exports from Gulf states have dropped even more sharply — by 1.1 million barrels per day. He said these figures show the Middle East factor plays a bigger role than Trump acknowledges.

Who benefits from the truce?

Economic expert Raivo Vare believes the energy truce mainly serves Trump's own interests, as US fuel prices have risen sharply ahead of midterm elections, where gas prices often serve as a political barometer.

Ukraine, facing its most difficult wartime winter yet, accepted the proposed truce immediately. Vare explained the truce also benefits Russia, since diesel is an intermediate product in the oil refining cycle — banning strikes on diesel production effectively protects the entire refining sector.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added that sanctions on energy supplies should also be lifted, which he said would help saturate global markets and bring prices down.

For now, fuel prices continue to climb both in the US and in Estonia. According to Vaht, the only effective way to lower fuel prices would be an agreement between Iran and the US that reopens the Strait of Hormuz to oil and oil product shipments.