Trump retreats from Hormuz tolls, suggesting struggle to end Iran war
US President Donald Trump abandoned his proposal for a 20% fee on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours, revealing a lack of clear strategy in the ongoing war with Iran.
Donald Trump's latest demand in the Iran War lasted just 24 hours, highlighting a president searching for unorthodox ways out of a difficult position. On Monday, he announced the resumption of a US naval blockade on Iranian shipping, stating that all vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including those of US allies, must pay a 20% fee to reimburse the US for security costs. The next day, he completely abandoned the proposal, instead offering trade and investment deals with Gulf allies, implying safe passage in return.
The abrupt reversal is the latest twist in a conflict now over four months old. Despite a month-old memorandum of understanding (MOU) that secured a temporary ceasefire and a framework for negotiations, the war shows no sign of ending. Trump may be reluctant to escalate due to the war's unpopularity, rising energy prices, and risks of Iranian attacks on US forces and allies. However, he might also dislike ending the conflict without a deal he can claim is better than the 2015 Obama-era agreement.
Experts describe the conflict as a war of attrition that could drag on. The US-Iran MOU, which raised hopes for peace, effectively died when Trump announced the blockade's resumption amid new US strikes on Iran. Iran responded by stepping up attacks on US allies and commercial shipping, nearly halting traffic through the Strait. Militarily, the US achieved objectives, but politically, the conflict remains unresolved. Iran can still deny access to the strait, and the US cannot stop them without significant escalation.
Trump's 20% fee idea was not entirely new; he had suggested it several times during the war. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously condemned Iran's plan to charge fees, citing international law. The MOU was intentionally vague, envisioning a role for Iran in overseeing Hormuz shipping, along with promises of billions in investment and sanctions relief. These sweeteners apparently failed to deter Iran from asserting control. Now both sides are in a familiar predicament: escalation or settling for a hostile regime.
After months of inflation concerns, Trump received good news on Tuesday about falling consumer prices. But renewed hostilities would push oil prices back up, endangering that trend and putting Republicans at risk in November's midterm elections. On Monday, oil prices surged nearly 10% after Trump's post. Trump's leverage over Iran may be diminished; he has already tried military strikes without forcing surrender. As the war approaches its fifth month, Trump noted that other conflicts like Vietnam lasted years, but that quagmire ended a presidency—a fate he hopes to avoid.
