Three European intelligence chiefs warn of rising Russian sabotage
Heads of the Czech, Latvian and Swedish intelligence services told The Guardian they expect Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe to intensify in coming months, though they differ on the likelihood of an attack on NATO territory.
The heads of the Czech, Latvian and Swedish security and intelligence services have told The Guardian, in separate interviews, that they expect Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe to intensify, while offering differing assessments of the risk that Moscow could strike a NATO member state.
Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), said Russia could attempt a limited incursion into NATO territory or a false-flag provocation within months rather than years, alongside the drone activity already being observed. He added, however, that many people are working hard to prevent such a scenario.
Normunds Mežviets, head of Latvia's State Security Service (VDD), speaking at the agency's headquarters in Riga, said he sees no signs of an imminent attack. He acknowledged indications that Moscow is preparing for more decisive action in Europe, but said it remains unclear whether this reflects concrete plans or is simply part of a broader strategy to spread fear and uncertainty in Western societies.
The Guardian noted that Baltic politicians, who for years criticised Western Europe for being too soft on Russia, now find themselves urging some Western leaders to be more restrained in their public statements, fearing that talk of an imminent invasion could damage their own societies and economies. Mežviets said it was broadly positive that Western Europe now recognises the threat from Russia, while Koudelka said the Kremlin is seeking to pressure weak points in Western societies in order to undermine support for Ukraine's war effort.
Sweden sees no sign of readiness to negotiate
Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden's military intelligence and security service, said he sees no indication that Moscow is ready for genuine negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. All three intelligence chiefs agreed that, regardless of how events unfold, Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months.
Nilsson described the recent incident involving an explosive-laden drone at Leipzig airport, which German authorities have linked to Russian intelligence, as a turning point. He said the aims behind the recent escalation in Russian sabotage include reducing support for Ukraine, sowing division within NATO and frightening the European public. Mežviets said Russia is shifting from chaotic, panic-inducing acts of sabotage and arson toward targeted attacks on facilities linked to Western support for Ukraine. Koudelka noted that another consequence of the sabotage campaign is that it strains intelligence services' resources, since suspicion often lingers even when an incident turns out to have other causes.
