Ukraine reclaims more territory than it lost in May, doubles strikes on Russian logistics
Ukraine gained more territory than it lost in May, breaking Russia's months-long trend of net gains. A strategy of targeting Russian supply lines has doubled the number of mid-range strikes, causing fuel shortages in Crimea and disrupting Russian logistics.
Ukraine's commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii announced that in May, Ukraine reclaimed nearly 100 square kilometers more than it lost, reversing a pattern of Russian monthly net gains. This marks a significant shift after several months of gradual Russian advances.
Different estimates emerge from various sources. Ukrainian defense news outlet Militarnyi, citing military sources, calculated a net gain of 120 square kilometers: Russia seized 130 but lost 250. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, using geolocated data, assessed that Russia captured 40 square kilometers while losing control of about 280 square kilometers in May.
However, Russia achieved success in one sector. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on June 10 that Russian forces advanced into eastern Kostiantynivka, the southernmost of four fortress cities in Donetsk. According to ISW, Russia now holds about 13% of the city after first infiltrating it last October.
Ukraine attributes its battlefield gains to a strategy of disrupting Russian supply lines. Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said the number of strikes on targets beyond 50 kilometers from the front doubled in May compared to April. Syrskii reported nearly 2,000 strikes in total.
The effects are notable. Russian military traffic on the M-14 motorway in southern regions dropped by over 70% after weeks of attacks, and on June 7, traffic on that route was completely banned. This forced Russian planners to reroute supplies via Crimea, where Ukraine has targeted key bridges.
Consequently, Crimea faces severe fuel shortages. On June 7, Sevastopol occupation governor Mikhail Razvozhaev rationed fuel to 20 liters per car per day, later reduced to 20 liters per week. The Ukrainian underground group Atesh reported that Russian units were abandoning positions on the Kinburn Spit due to shortages of food and fuel.
Ukraine has also continued a successful long-range campaign targeting Russian oil refineries, depots, and terminals, reducing oil production and export revenue.
Russian recruitment is faltering. Syrskii noted that only 14,500 people have signed contracts for unmanned systems units since the start of the year—about 21% of the annual target. Overall, Ukraine has killed or wounded 12,500 more troops than Russia has been able to recruit this year.
