Ukraine continues strikes on Crimea; Putin admits fuel crisis in Russia
On day 1587 of the war, Ukraine kept hitting targets in occupied Crimea and Russian oil infrastructure. Vladimir Putin acknowledged fuel shortages, while Financial Times argues the balance of war is shifting in Ukraine's favor.
Latest developments on Day 1587
On June 29, Ukraine continued strikes against targets in occupied Crimea. Social media reported explosions in Sevastopol, and air raid sirens sounded in other parts of Crimea. Simultaneously, drone threats were declared in Russia's Krasnodar and Rostov regions.
Over the weekend, Ukraine kept attacking Russian oil infrastructure. Videos on social media show long queues at gas stations, including in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai.
Putin: Refineries running at full capacity
President Vladimir Putin acknowledged at a meeting on fuel supply on June 28 that Russia's largest refineries are operating at maximum capacity due to Ukrainian attacks. He said production of major fuels in July would exceed June levels, but admitted shortages: "Problems for drivers and businesses remain. Unfortunately, there are queues at stations, and you cannot always find the right fuel grade." Gasoline reserves stand at 1.7 million tonnes, 4% less than last year.
According to Reuters, Russian gasoline production covers only about 80% of domestic demand. Analysts at Energy Intelligence say Ukraine's campaign against Russia's energy sector has caused massive damage, pushing the country toward its worst fuel crisis. The Bell reported that by mid-June, more than 50 Russian regions and annexed Ukrainian territories had temporary restrictions on fuel sales to private cars.
Putin on the "spirit of Anchorage" and talks
In an interview with Pavel Zarubin, Putin explained the "spirit of Anchorage"—referring to his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Alaska last August. He said: "There were no agreements in Anchorage… but we discussed certain possibilities for resolving the Ukrainian crisis. The compromises discussed were proposals made by the American side." Putin added that Russia initially hesitated but later agreed in Anchorage. He also expects U.S. representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow to continue dialogue, and that Minsk could host negotiations.
FT: War balance tilts in Ukraine's favor
Financial Times economics commentator Martin Sandbu writes that Ukraine has managed to turn the tide this year, gaining technological and military advantages. Meanwhile, Russia faces growing economic constraints. Sandbu notes Russia loses 30,000–40,000 soldiers monthly, largely due to Ukraine's innovations.
In the past three months, Russia has been losing territory. Ukraine's ability to strike Russian refineries has limited export earnings, and operations against the occupied Crimean "administration" forced a state of emergency due to power cuts and fuel shortages.
Sandbu emphasizes Russia has exhausted its economic potential. Inflation is higher than official figures show, and the government has already exceeded its annual budget deficit target. Growth turned to decline in the first quarter, and payments to families of fallen and wounded soldiers are so large they significantly impact macroeconomics.
A Kiel University report says Russia has almost depleted its "lifelines"—rising oil and gas prices during the war with Iran have not helped as expected due to Ukrainian strikes. Europe's tougher stance on Russia's "shadow fleet" and trade sanctions also hampers using export revenue for military imports.
Ukraine, despite constant Russian attacks, has partially compensated for the production drop since 2022. Production is expected to continue growing this year. Ukraine remains fully dependent on allied financial aid for military spending, but Europe has filled the gap left by the U.S. The EU approved a €90 billion loan, and European funds are already flowing into Ukraine's defense industry.
