Ukraine Increasingly Struggles to Compete for Its Migrants: Research Reveals Major Shift in Return Motivation
According to a study by sociological firm Gradus, the decision to return to Ukraine depends less on the situation in the country and more on conditions in host countries. While 53% of respondents still plan to return, many cannot specify when, and the main return motives are emotional rather than rational.
A New Reality After Five Years in Exile
Since Russia's full-scale invasion, the Ukraine Recovery Conference has been a platform to discuss the country's post-war future. However, an increasingly pressing question is: who will live in Ukraine after the war? Sociologist Yevheniya Blyznyuk, founder and CEO of Gradus, notes that the hope of a mass return of Ukrainians after hostilities end is gradually fading.
The third wave of research on factors influencing return shows: the longer people live outside Ukraine, the deeper they put down roots – they find jobs, rent or buy housing, children attend local kindergartens and schools, and they learn the local language. The decision to return depends less on the situation in Ukraine and more on conditions in the host country.
Emotional and Rational Motives
According to the survey, 53% of respondents still plan to return to Ukraine, but a large share cannot specify when. The main reasons for staying abroad are safety, the ability to ensure a decent standard of living, and stability. In contrast, returning is driven by emotional factors – a desire to be with family and friends, restore a sense of home, and contribute to the country's reconstruction.
For the first time, one of the key factors influencing the return decision is not the situation in Ukraine but changes in the migration policies of host countries. European countries are gradually making decisions on temporary protection programs, simplifying legalization procedures, and creating opportunities for children's integration.
What Ukraine Should Do
The author emphasizes: Ukraine must move from appeals to guilt to creating institutional mechanisms that allow Ukrainians abroad to maintain ties with the state. Transforming migrant policies, supporting communication with the diaspora, and building a transnational community are essential demographic strategy tools.
Ukraine's competitiveness now determines whether Ukrainians will return. The issue is no longer just about security but about living conditions – jobs, education, social security. Reconstruction means not only rebuilding bridges and hospitals but also creating an environment where people want to live.
Losing physical presence is a serious challenge, but losing the connection to Ukraine will have longer and more complex consequences. Demographic policy can no longer be limited to the question of how many people and when they will return – it is crucial to maintain trust, engagement, and interaction with Ukrainians regardless of where they live.
